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Spot the unfounded assumption…

Posted by TFG on June 27th, 2008

John Robb’s Weblog: 50-50

The National Snow and Ice Data Center are calculating the odds of an ice free arctic this summer. Very interesting cascade at work. Basically, when you alter the operating assumptions of a large complex system you don’t fully understand…

Go on, it’s a fun game. It can even be quite lucrative, if you want to play it. Zillions of Chicken Littles will join you, and many will have grant money or book contracts.

5 Responses to “Spot the unfounded assumption…”

  1. Da Goddess Says:

    Apparently none of these people watch Ice Road Truckers or Deadliest Catch. If they did, or if they actually went out into the weather they’d have plenty of freeze/thaw patterns to study from numerous places. Oh wait, if they did that they’d lose all their grant money.

    Serreze said those who suggest that the Arctic meltdown is just part of a historic cycle are wrong.

    “It’s not cyclical at this point. I think we understand the physics behind this pretty well,” he said. “We’ve known for at least 30 years, from our earliest climate models, that it’s the Arctic where we’d see the first signs of global warming.”

    Climate models are wholly dependent on data interpreted by humans. And if those humans have an agenda, well, we all can see where this is headed. Even worse is if they’re using climate models that were fundamentally wrong in the first place.

  2. charles austin Says:

    Sure, but what are we going to do about the crisis of the expanding Antacrtic ice shelf?

  3. charles austin Says:

    Or the Antarctic?

  4. Da Goddess Says:

    We’ll wait until some Hollywood circus poodle has a big televised fundraiser and then we can all be properly concerned about yet another celebrity-sponsored cause.

  5. TFG Says:

    I say we relocate the polar bears there, and they can eat penguins instead of seals.

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